The Reason Massachusetts' Governorship Is Most Likely To Change Hands in 2022

There is a position available in Massachusetts' corner office and in a state with no lack of ambitious politicians, you would anticipate a Central Artery-like congestion to replace departing Republican Gov. Charlie Baker. Instead, it is now safe for Democratic Attorney General Maura Healey to begin choosing new draperies more than two months before Election Day.

Thus, how, therefore, did it become so uncompetitive to lead the 15th-largest state in the US, the site of the American Revolution, the center of New England (if not the whole world), if you didn't already know, my home state?

It wasn't constant. A year ago, it appeared like Bay Staters would be treated to not one, but two contested primaries for governor. On the Democratic side, candidates included Harvard professor Danielle Allen, state senator Sonia Chang-Daz, and former state senator Ben Downing. Former state representative Geoff Diehl ran against Baker in the Republican primary.

A primary challenge to an incumbent governor would often be a fool's errand, but Baker is not the GOP base's favorite.

Baker has worked with the Democratic legislature to combat climate change and defend abortion rights. He even came out in favor of impeaching former President Donald Trump for his part in the attack on the U.S. Capitol on January 6, continuing a long tradition of moderate, even liberal, Republican governors in the Northeast.

In other words, Baker's favorability among Republicans wasn't particularly high. A COVID States Project survey from November 2021 revealed that it was just 35%. Additionally, a Public Policy Polling study conducted after Trump gave Diehl his support and funded by the Democratic Governors Association (obviously not a neutral party) revealed that Diehl had defeated Baker in the GOP primary by a margin of 21 percentage points.

However, Baker pulled the plug in December 2021, and his decision to not run for reelection shifted the course of the contest for both parties. Baker maintained that fear of losing the primary had nothing to do with it. On the exact day that Baker announced his retirement, talk centered on whether rising Democratic star Healey might run for office. A few weeks later, Downing withdrew from the campaign as Healey's candidacy (and $3.3 million war chest) became closer.

After Healey formally entered the race in January, the other contenders were quickly pushed out. She received 48 percent of the vote in a January Democratic primary survey conducted by MassINC Polling Group, compared to Chang-12 Daz's percent and Allen's 3 percent.

Allen was also eliminated from the race less than a month later. Although Chang-Daz persisted a little longer, she said on June 23 that she had "no route" to win the primary and was withdrawing after facing a 33-point deficit in a June survey from the University of Massachusetts Amherst. Healey is now basically running uncontested in the Democratic primary on Tuesday, despite Chang-name Daz's still showing up on ballots.

Additionally, it doesn't appear like she will face any opposition in the general election.

Healey has consistently had an enormous advantage in polls, including the most recent one from Suffolk University in July (Healey 54 percent, Diehl 23 percent). Additionally, Healey has a better than 99 percent probability of defeating Diehl, according to all three iterations of the FiveThirtyEight midterm prediction.

Just behind Maryland, a similarly blue state where a moderate Republican governor is stepping down and Republicans have selected a fervent Trump fan to take his place, Massachusetts is now the governorship most likely to switch parties in the 2022 election.

While Baker is now one of the most well-liked governors in the nation, Massachusetts has only elected one Democratic governor since 1990.

Though Massachusetts may be too Democratic (according to FiveThirtyEight's political tilt, it's the bluest state in the nation) to elect another Republican governor, especially one as Trumpy as Diehl if partisanship starts to dominate gubernatorial races.

Although Diehl still needs to prevail in his primary on Tuesday, some Republicans think they still have a chance to win the general election if they choose Chris Doughty, a self-described "pragmatic businessman."

However, Doughty's assertion that Trump lost the 2020 election and his pledge to maintain Massachusetts' legal abortion status is unlikely to be well received in a Republican primary. Diehl had a 42 percent to 27 percent advantage in a survey conducted by the Advantage/Fiscal Alliance Foundation in August.

Polls indicate that even if Doughty managed to defeat Diehl in the primary, he would perform equally poorly in the general election.

In other words, Healey is poised to create history in addition to turning the Massachusetts governor's office from red to blue. She would be the first openly lesbian governor of any state as well as the first woman elected governor of Massachusetts. Therefore, Massachusetts will provide Democrats with at least one reason to celebrate, regardless of what happens in the midterm elections elsewhere in the nation.