A head to head comparison of the Georgia 2020 General Election gives us an idea of the break down of the voters.
In 12 years, the Democrat party has not expanded the number of counties in which they win as evident from the chart above. Since President Obama's 2008 won around 880 counties of any Democrat in 12 years (maybe even 20 years), with Mrs. Clinton winning only 485 counties in the country. The increase or decrease for President Obama or Mrs. Clinton did not come from GA. Vice President Biden,for his win made the map less blue compared to Mrs. Clinton. However, he was able to generate a 591K vote gain compared to her winning less counties.
The 12 years show the Democrat Party has figured out to win races, by winning a handful of counties in a state through massive vote turn out in the few highly populated counties, election after elections with absolutely guarantee.This benefits the Democrat party by taking on a aggressive campaign like a Republican candidate has to. Vice President Joe Biden's campaigning in 2020 was a stark contrast to President Trump's. It also creates a massive vote bank in a high density county, where ballot harvesting (where allowed), absentee/mail-in ballot pools could help the Democrat candidate more than a Republican candidate.
With lax voting regulations, a small group of counties has the potential of holding the entire state for ransom in policy and agenda. For example, In Georgia 30 counties out of the 159, or in low voter turn out races the top 15 populous counties could make the state Blue if the Republican party fails to bring enthusiasm to their side.
VP Joe Biden received 2,472,148 (50.1%) votes and President Donald Trump who gained 2,457,999 (49.9%) by just 14,149 votes in Georgia. The election is being contested as of Nov 11th.
President Trump won 129 counties out of the 159 counties that make up Georgia. The record shows that VP Joe Biden won 30 counties.
The Democratic party out performed their voter growth rate which was 33K from 2008-2016 to 798K votes starting from the same time into 2020. That is a 2400% growth rate in 4 years which is incredibly impressive or fantastic based on the party the reader belongs too. This is 3 times more than the Republican gain in 8 years. The main reason being on how poorly the Republican party did in 2008 and 2012 with expanding their base stated below.
Based on the Chart 1, the Republican party grew by 399439 since 2008, with the party adding 30K in 2012 of 0.01%, 10K in 2016 of 0.005% and 359K in 2020. Republican party's growth rate for the last 4 years is 14% which is the biggest gain since 2004. President Trump's 1st term beat President Obama's both terms in growing his party in Georgia based on the graphs.
The Chart 2 (enthusiasm index), shows the voter gain in both parties as compared to the previous year. It is a 2 way comparison, 1st comparing with the previous election and then a comparison between the both parties. For example, 2008, the enthusiasm for President Obama was much than John Kerry's in previous election and for the Republican candidate John Mccain was definitely less than in President George W. Bush's re-election. For President Obama & Senator Romney, the enthusiam went negative and that didnot improve for Mrs. Clinton and President Trumps 2016 election. 2020 Republican party enthusiam grows for since President Bush's reelection campaign and so Democrat party did better than President Obama's 2008. (Unfortunately, this amazing even has been marred with claims of voter fraud. If found, baseless, this would be an incredbible achievement.)
The chart 3, is a troubling factor for the Democrat Party, the number of counties they win has not increased in 20 years and in 2020 the actually lost a county to the Republicans which are needed to win Congressional races and Senate races at the Federal level. The same is needed for state house and senate races. It is also amazing that the Democrats seems to be able to win state wide elections by winning 1/5 the number of counties. The same story with the Republican Party. The next level of granularity in this analysis would be are the numbers increasing towards which party in these counties.
The Overall participation rate (P.R = Voted/Registered) in chart 4 for the 2020 election fell from 73% to 70%. This is a strange phenomenon, considering how low the enthusiasm index in the previous 2 elections. In 2020, the total number of vote increase is close to a 1 Million (569K for D, 359K for R) votes over in 2016. There are only 2 reasons why the participation index drops, (1) Voting Numbers drop (2) Registration Numbers Increase. In 2020, the voting number did not drop, but the registration numbers must have increased.
2020 GA Primary Election vs Presidential General Elections Counties Won
Primary Elections
Presidential General Election
When comparing V.P Joe Biden's votes in primary with Mrs. Clinton's in 2016, he beat her in almost every single county w.r.t the number of votes (except 8 counties out of 159 where he got collectively 500 votes out less than the total 912K votes than Mrs. Clinton). Almost the same pattern, where Vice President Biden, wins almost all the counties in a head to head match up with Mrs. Clinton in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. Incidentally, these states have cases in court challenging the election results and the vote counts. Taking a closer look at Fulton County, Mrs. Clinton got 82K in 2016, while VP Biden got 134K votes in 2020 a 53K difference. In Gwinnett 48K, Dekalb 46K, Cobb 45K difference respectively.
When compared to Florida, which seems to be the gold standard for election prediction, where the primary votes matched the results in the general elections, where Joe Biden's voter turn out from him Miami-Dade county was less than Mrs. Clinton's 2016 primary and so was the turn out for 2020 general elections was lower than what Mrs. Clinton got in 2016.
Top 15 Counties in Presidential Primary Elections vs Presidential General Elections
All Candidates (Presidential Primary Elections)
All Candidates (Presidential General Elections)
Comparing the size of the vote of the primary & general elections along the lines of the counties gives a pretty good idea of where the campaign battles need to happen? The top 20 year trends of these of the top 15 counties should show which party is making inroads in the state and by what margin. These 6 pie charts for each county shows 2 definite trend. The First(I) , In majority of these (16) counties, Democrat Party gains only seem to increase, unlike the Republican Party which tends to wax and wane. The second (II), the Republican Party Performance seems to always inspire the Democrat Party Performance (Especially after 2008). If the Republican Party does well, the Democrat also seems to match in their performance counties (the only exception was 2008, where the party had a great election due to President Obama's candidacy and campaign while Senator Mccain's poor performance in both areas).
(I) First Trend: The Democrat Party % gain never go down irrespective of Candidate or Campaign in Counties like Gwinnett (Over 20 year period)
Gwinnett County, a Suburb of Atlanta is a perfect example of this trend in the graph below. (though we have observed this in multiple states that have high to medium population scale counties). In, 2004 saw a 33% gain over 2000. 2008 a 58% gain over 2004 (totalling a 91% gain in 8 years), 2012 saw a 3% gain over 2008 (totalling a 94% gain since 2000), 2016 saw a 25% gain over 2012 (119% gain since 2000). Even though Mrs. Clinton was not considered a great candidate, the 119% increase in the vote since 2000 showed up to support her. In 2020 saw a 42% gain over 2016 (161% gain in 20 years) based on the amount V.P Joe Biden campaigned in the state (Reader can be judge of that). The Republican party support in Gwinnett, GA, tends to wax and wane based on the candidate and campaign. Senator McCain in 2008 dropped by 1% and Senator Romney gained 2% (making up the 1% drop of McCain). In the incumbent race of both President Bush and President Trump were the only 2 Republican candidates whose support grew. President Bush's was a 33% gain and was a 20% gain (-8% 2016 drop made up + 2020 12% gain) gain. President Trump got his 20% gain based the readers interpretation of President Trump's 4 years, based on his policy, popularity and his campaign.
(II) Second Trend: The Democrat Party match or exceed Republican Party Performance in Big Elections (Democrats never had a -ve Drop in 20 years !)
Again, looking at Gwinnett county, 2000 to 2004 where the Democrat party (32%) improvement matched the Republican (33%) improvement to almost identical. The lack of improvement also matched the 2008-2012. These trends appear as parallel lines on graphs where the slope of these lines tend to be identical (math concepts taught in middel school). Republican's in 2020 had 12% gain (ignoring the 8% drop of 2016 which they improved), the Gwinnett Democrats showed up in the gain of 42% gain a 30% jump. Vice President Joe Biden, % gain was 10 times more than President Obama's 2012 re-election. President Trump had a 12% jump in wihch means he is was not as unpopular as his 2016 performance with a 17K vote gain in Gwinnett (meaning he kept his 2016 numbers and added 17K new voters). It is just that the Democrats stellar 70K jump since their 2016 in the 2020 election (166K to 236K). Based on 1st Trend, this is could be the new lowest number for the Democrat's in the Gwinnett county as their numbers never seem to have gone down in the past 20 years. (Once a Democrat County, Always a Democrat County?) This is a metoric gain of 160K gain from 60K in 2000 to 236K in 2020, while the the Republican's seem to have a steady gain of 40K which is 1/4th. [The Reader could visit http://eddy.truefairnews.com/ to do a detailed demographic study on that county]
Primary Election
In the Primary, President Trump won 118 counties in a 2-way match up. VP Biden from the Democratic Party won 41 counties.
2020 GA Presidential Primary vs Presidential General Elections w.r.t % Votes and Total Votes Won
Presidential Primary Elections
Presidential Election
On a head to head count with the total votes between in VP Biden and President Trump between the Presidential Primary and General Elections, percentage (%) vote shift difference is 0.5% increase for VP Biden and a 0.5% decrease for President Trump. These percentages are represented by a vote increment of 1,551,085 for VP Biden and 1,515,662 for President Trump at the Presidential General Elections.
Popular Vote Victory Contributed by Georgia at the 2020 General Elections
Presidential Primary Elections
Presidential General Elections
During the 2020 General elections, a lot of total number of votes were cast. Aside the Electoral Votes, Popular Votes came to the fore as well. Further details regarding overall total votes cast, percentage contributed by the various states, and the winner of Popular votes will be updated soon.
Primary Elections vs General Elections
These 15 counties play an important role in these primary elections. If a candidate, can get a sizable majority in the larger counties (Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb and DeKalb), it becomes very difficult to win majorities in the smaller counties with out voter out reach and increased voter participation in them.
Top 15 Counties Comparison in Primary Elections vs General Elections
Presidential Primary Elections
VP Joseph Biden
Presidential Primary Elections
President Donald Trump
Presidential General Elections
VP Joseph Biden
Presidential General Elections
President Donald Trump
Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb and DeKalb, the larger counties in Georgia, voted in favor of VP Joseph Biden giving him a 625k vote advantage out of those counties. On the other hand, President Trump's steady win at many more of the smaller counties was not enough to overcome that deficit, thus making Biden gain an upper hand in the State of Georgia.
Related References: 2020 Georgia Primary Election Story, 2016 Georgia Primary Election Story, 2012 Georgia Primary Election Story
